Tagged: closer

Résumé Review

Quick.  Tell me who Player A is and who Player B is:

G W L ERA WHIP BAA
Player A 11 1 0 2.57 1.43 0.192
Player B 15 0 0 6.00 1.47 0.224

Would you guess that Player A is Tyler Clippard, post-All-Star break, and Player B is Drew Storen, post-All-Star break?  If you are a die-hard Nationals fan, dollars to doughnuts, yes.  Perhaps to a more casual fan, the selective exclusion of stats like saves and innings pitched may have obscured the identities.  Anyhoo, the point of this blind résumé review is not to suggest that Tyler Clippard’s days as the closer of the Nats are numbered, or that they should be.  Just to highlight that the margin for error is not quite as spacious as it once was.

Tyler hit a bit of rough patch in July, sporting a 5.79 ERA (three consecutive appearances in mid-July accounted for most of the damage and both of his blown saves for the month), and while the August ERA has been better (3.60), a surging walk-rate and morbidly obese 6.13 xFIP (regressed, expected ERA independent of fielding) suggest that Clipp should consider himself fortunate to have blown only one of his save opportunities.  And if you don’t like numbers, you only have to peer down a inch or two for visual evidence (praise Roger!).

It should be noted that peering under the hood at Storen’s numbers does reveal a little leaking oil coming from the recently repaired luxury sedan, though with the caveat that we are looking at things only after seven innings of work.  Drew’s walk rate of 6.43 BB/9 equals his k/9 rate, and that is not good.  And his xFIP sits at an ugly 5.27.  Plus, just watching him, he has hung some pitches that deserved far worse fates then they received (thank you baseball gods!).

So, what to take away from all this number crunching?  The pessimist would say that the Nationals have gotten lucky, that with their closer and former closer turned primary setup man struggling so much, they are fortunate to have only blown three saves.  And while there is perhaps a kernel of truth in that thought, the optimist (that would be me!) would counter by saying that you can’t forecast a gloomy future on the basis that it should have been ugly yesterday but it wasn’t, so it must be tomorrow.  That is, the historical performances of both Tyler and Drew, and their skill sets, are the controlling factors for how today, tomorrow, and the rest of the season will play out.  On the basis of those factors, the Nats should actually get much better play from both pitchers.  And if that is the case, it may not matter which résumé Davey Johnson pulls for his closer position.  Both will be outstanding and more than fulfill the requirements of the position.

Break the Streak

I guess Edwin Jackson caught wind of my post yesterday morning and just plain decided that he didn’t want any part of a plagiarist’s future book.  Okay, probably not.  But he was on his game last night, leading the Nationals to a 3-1 victory over the Orioles.  Interesting tidbit I picked up reading various articles this morning:  Three months into the season and Washington has yet to post a double-digit scoring effort.  I imagine that’s why a 3-1 winning line score seems so familiar.  Later today, Ross Detwiler will take the mound in an effort to take the weekend series.   With Jake Arrieta and his 5.83 ERA taking the mound for the Orioles, perhaps we will see an end to that streak today???

Game ball(s):  Jackson, Mike Gonzalez, Sean Burnett, and Tyler Clippard.  The Nats are 3 1/2 games up in the NL East almost exclusively as a result of their brilliant pitching staff.  Imagine if the team ever starts hitting?  Cue John Lennon.

Goat(s):  Jim Riggleman.  One year ago yesterday, Riggleman abruptly resigned in the midst of a contract squabble with the team.  I wonder if Jim is finding that he is able to stretch his dollars better with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos?

Bryce Harper is still only 19:  Well, this is certainly interesting: Tyler Clippard to remain closer even when Drew Storen returns.   It has been quite the changing narrative surrounding Clippard’s usage this season, starting with the team not wanting to pull him from his setup role when Storen went down during Spring Training to now not wanting to pull him as closer when Drew returns.  Parsing Davey Johnson’s words though, he was careful to leave the door open for a swap, if Clippard were to slip up and Storen were to flash dominance in a setup role.  For now, I can’t argue that isn’t the correct course of action.  Drew is the Nationals’ long-term closer, but coming off of a bum elbow, there is no sense in rushing him back into ninth inning duties before he finds his groove, especially when Clippard has been outstanding himself.

Current Record:  41-28