Tagged: Mariano Rivera

Nearly Off A Lidge

As little fun as it was to realize checking the box score when I got home how close Brad Lidge came to blowing Washington’s home opener against the Reds, in that brief moment, a smile managed to cross my face.   In that flash of panic, a thought came to me.  I have absolutely no control over the travails of Brad Lidge and when and how often he will puts Nats victories in peril this season.  But as someone who has to write a headline every day, his name is heaven sent.

Writing musings aside, I have to say that at this juncture, with Drew Storen undergoing “minor”* elbow surgery, I would go with Henry Rodriguez as the Nationals closer.  I know.  He is prone to walks like Michael Moore is prone to cupcakes.  But not much more than Lidge, who owns a career 4.17 bb/9.  Rodriguez?  5.6.  Granted, 5.6 is higher by a decent margin.  And there is some risk in that.  But at this point in their two careers, H-Rod also possesses more dominant stuff, an repertoire led by a fastball that can hit triple-digits, a good slider, and an improving change-up that averages 92.5 mph per FanGraphs and actually has been his best pitch in the early going (3.8 pitch value** on FanGraphs).

Meanwhile, Lidge is handicapped by being basically a one-pitch pitcher.  His fastball hasn’t been dominant or evenly terribly good in years, with its velocity dropping from an average 95.8 mph in 2007 to 89.9 mph this season.  Not surprisingly, 2007 was the last time Lidge’s fastball had a positive pitch value according to FanGraphs.  So Lidge calls more and more upon his slider to get hitters out.  While his slider is still a dominant pitch (2.08 career pitch value), unless you are Mariano Rivera, you can’t consistently get outs in the ninth inning against major leaguers with just one pitch.

So, if I had to choose between two pitchers with a penchant for walks, I would cast my lot in with the chap with a deeper and better arsenal capable of stranding those runners on the base paths.  And that would be H-Rod.

Game ball(s):  Gio Gonzalez.  His debut with the Nats was well, poor.  But his home debut made up for the clunker, as he dominated over seven innings, allowing only two hits and striking out seven in the process.

Goat(s):  I think I nailed Lidge sufficiently to the cross above.

Bryce Harper is not as far off:  Adam LaRoche, who once again delivered with two hits and two runs driven in.

Current Record: 5-2

*Show me a minor elbow surgery for a pitcher and I will show you a minor heart attack for a fat man.

**Pitch value is more of a descriptive statistic than a predictive one.  It attempts to tell you what a pitcher’s best pitch is and the numbers I quote represent the number of runs saved over 100 pitches of the type mentioned.  For more, read on here.