Tagged: xFIP

Résumé Review

Quick.  Tell me who Player A is and who Player B is:

G W L ERA WHIP BAA
Player A 11 1 0 2.57 1.43 0.192
Player B 15 0 0 6.00 1.47 0.224

Would you guess that Player A is Tyler Clippard, post-All-Star break, and Player B is Drew Storen, post-All-Star break?  If you are a die-hard Nationals fan, dollars to doughnuts, yes.  Perhaps to a more casual fan, the selective exclusion of stats like saves and innings pitched may have obscured the identities.  Anyhoo, the point of this blind résumé review is not to suggest that Tyler Clippard’s days as the closer of the Nats are numbered, or that they should be.  Just to highlight that the margin for error is not quite as spacious as it once was.

Tyler hit a bit of rough patch in July, sporting a 5.79 ERA (three consecutive appearances in mid-July accounted for most of the damage and both of his blown saves for the month), and while the August ERA has been better (3.60), a surging walk-rate and morbidly obese 6.13 xFIP (regressed, expected ERA independent of fielding) suggest that Clipp should consider himself fortunate to have blown only one of his save opportunities.  And if you don’t like numbers, you only have to peer down a inch or two for visual evidence (praise Roger!).

It should be noted that peering under the hood at Storen’s numbers does reveal a little leaking oil coming from the recently repaired luxury sedan, though with the caveat that we are looking at things only after seven innings of work.  Drew’s walk rate of 6.43 BB/9 equals his k/9 rate, and that is not good.  And his xFIP sits at an ugly 5.27.  Plus, just watching him, he has hung some pitches that deserved far worse fates then they received (thank you baseball gods!).

So, what to take away from all this number crunching?  The pessimist would say that the Nationals have gotten lucky, that with their closer and former closer turned primary setup man struggling so much, they are fortunate to have only blown three saves.  And while there is perhaps a kernel of truth in that thought, the optimist (that would be me!) would counter by saying that you can’t forecast a gloomy future on the basis that it should have been ugly yesterday but it wasn’t, so it must be tomorrow.  That is, the historical performances of both Tyler and Drew, and their skill sets, are the controlling factors for how today, tomorrow, and the rest of the season will play out.  On the basis of those factors, the Nats should actually get much better play from both pitchers.  And if that is the case, it may not matter which résumé Davey Johnson pulls for his closer position.  Both will be outstanding and more than fulfill the requirements of the position.

June’s MESPYs

I’m in a celebratory mood this morning.  The Nationals rolled off another win last night, and in the process, put another curly w in the box score for Jordan Zimmermann.  Baseball is a funny, funny game. Zimm goes winless between late May and late June and now sees superlative pitching being rewarded in his last two starts, with the Nats offense knocking in 20 runs combined.  And of course, it’s our nation’s Independence Day, and while I still have time to write without IRS compulsion, what better way to celebrate than with June’s MESPY (Matt’s Excellence in Self-Promotion Yada Yada) Awards:

AL MVP:  Mike Trout.  Robinson Cano had a monster June, but on the day we celebrate standing up to the big bully on the block (alliteration!), I’m not going to shirk away from my disdain for the Evil Empire.  So it goes to Trout, who actually edged Cano out in WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 2.2 to 2.0.  And Trout did this at the tender age of 20.  Wow.

AL CY Young:  Hiroki Kuroda.  Dang.  Well, the British did give us the Beatles.

AL Rookie of the Month:  Trout.  I hate to be a Benedict Arnold on such a hallowed day, but what I said in May’s MESPYs hasn’t changed.  Trout has been baseball’s best rookie and at this pace, could be in the running for the AL’s best player by season’s end.

NL MVP:  R.A. Dickey.  Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto both deserve kudos for tremendous months, but Dickey taking home the award just goes to show you how dominate he was during June.  He posted the second best WAR in baseball (2.1), a sub-one ERA (.93), a .60 WHIP, struck out 55 batters while only walking 8, and went 5-0.  Oh, and he did this throwing a knuckleball.

NY CY Young:  Dickey.  If only I had a Forever Lazy this would be the perfect day.

NL Rookie of the Month:  Andrelton Simmons.  Bryce, I still want to be your accountant.  But while you hit a bit of a soft patch in June, the Braves shortstop batted .333, showed slick fielding skills (alliteration!), and posted a nice 1.6 WAR.  I’m going to take a long walk off a short bridge now.

Nationals’ MVP:  Ian Desmond.  He crushed another one out last night off of Tim Lincecum, which was just more of the same for the Nats’ All-Star shortstop.  I’d like to think this is all because of my talk with Ian at Spring Training two years ago.  Oh, but he didn’t do so well last year.  I see.  My silence is golden.

Nationals’ CY Young:  Stephen Strasburg.  A 2.25 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) points to his 3.09 June ERA being unlucky.  But a 13.37 k/9 and six quality starts demonstrate that even without luck, Strasburg is simply dominant.

Nationals’ Rookie of the Month:  Tyler Moore.  I can see why I got into auditing and not public relations.  That depressing thought aside, in 68 fewer plate appearances, Moore had the same number of home runs as Bryce Harper (4), same number of RBIs (11), batted a robust .425, and topped Harper in WAR 1.0 to 0.6.  I hate myself.

And that’s all folks!

Implosion

Brian Broderick.jpg

Well, now that was as
short-lived as a Lindsay Lohan (oh excuse me, Lindsay) rehab stint. For two
games, one could claim the Nationals were playing good defense and the bullpen
was rock solid. Not so much anymore after yesterday’s 11-2 implosion against
the Braves.

Although the
Nationals never really threatened much offensively against Tim Hudson, you
could easily argue that going into the top of the seventh only down 3-1, the
Nationals were still in the game. Then Nationals starting pitcher Jordan
Zimmermann left the game and the Lindsay groupies took over. Eight runs and two
innings later, the game, once close, turned to a rout.

That Brian Broderick
(who was making his major league debut) and Chad Gaudin (who has appeared
generally miserable in over 200 games) were less than stellar hardly shocks the
system. But for the Nationals to have a reliable bullpen this year beyond
Burnett, Clippard, and Storen (who should find his way there quickly), the team
can’t have Todd Coffey and their second left-hander Doug Slaten pitching like
they did yesterday.

With a career xFIP*
of 3.93, I don’t worry too much about Coffey. But with a career xFIP of 4.74, I
think Slaten’s 3.10 ERA last year was a bit lucky. If that’s true, the
Nationals may be playing with only one reliable lefty out of their bullpen, a
position that will cost them games down the road. 

Game 3 Natties

Game Ball: Tim Hudson. Dominated for seven
innings, as the Nationals could only stand at the plate and eek out soft ground
balls and harmless pop ups. 

Goat: The Nationals bullpen. Coffey, Slaten,
Broderick, and Gaudin turned a relatively close game into a rout. Unless you
have a bookie problem, that’s not supposed to happen.

Bryce Harper is a ways off: Jordan Zimmermann. Kept a solid
performance together for six innings without his best stuff.

Current Record: 1-2

*xFIP: Expected
Fielding Independent Pitching. It measures what a pitcher’s ERA should have
looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in
play, timing, and home run rate were league average.